Friday, 19 June 2009

TUF 9 FINALE PREVIEW

BY DAVID MCKINNEY

Undercard

 LW: Jason Dent (18-9) over Cameron Dollar (2-1) – Neither one of these fighters will probably ever make it big, but Jason Dent (0-2 UFC) already has UFC experience, and he should be able to take care of the jittery Cameron Dollar, who will be making his UFC debut in front of a relatively big crowd.

 WW: Nick Osipczak (3-0) over Frank Lester (3-2) – There’s always a guy who blossoms in the UFC after his time on TUF, and I feel like Osipczak could be this year’s breakout former TUF star. He’s showed that he has some sick skills and I feel like he should be able to easily dispatch of very average Lester.

 WW: Brad Blackburn (13-9-1) over Edgar Garcia (7-0) – Many people are writing off Blackburn (2-0 UFC) in this fight, but I feel that the former IFL fighter has finally found his home in the UFC. He has crazy good kickboxing skills; his ground game may need some work but, at 32, he’s a seasoned fighter who comes into fights poised and ready to impose his will. I can’t deny that the debuting Edgar Garcia looks like a solid prospect with some standup skills of his own, and his WEC win over Hiromitsu Miura, a fighter who gave former WEC champion Carlos Condit all that he could handle, definitely opened some eyes. I’m not really expecting this fight to be shown on the live broadcast, but it could be one that fans are talking after the show.

 LHW: Tomasz Drwal (15-2) over Mike Ciesnolevicz (17-3) – Both of these guys are overlooked in the UFC, but they both possess gaudy records that could earn the winner some notoriety in the light heavyweight division. Drwal (1-1 UFC) prefers the standup game, and Ciesnolevicz (1-0 UFC) is a Miletich fighter with an all-around game. I like Ciesnolevicz in the relatively weak UFC heavyweight division, but he’s just another guy in the stacked 205-pound weight class. Drwal should be able to pick up the TKO here in what could be an exciting fight.

 LW: Gleison Tibau (17-6) over Melvin Guillard (21-7-2) – I’m not sure how Melvin Guillard (4-3 UFC) keeps getting chances in the UFC – he has all of the talent, but there is obviously something missing in his game that will always prevent him from taking the next step. Tibau (5-3 UFC) could be described much in the same way, but he’s working on a two-fight winning streak and could really open some eyes with his third consecutive UFC win on Saturday night. Because Guillard is a very streaky fighter, I have a feeling that the slick Tibau will catch him in a submission before the end of the second round.

 WW: Chris Lytle (26-17-5) over Kevin Burns (7-2) – Chris Lytle (6-9 UFC) is like the little fly that you can’t kill. Only instead of being a pest, he’s like a breath of fresh air – a fighter who survives because of the fact that he won’t give up and because he keeps getting better. Burns (2-1 UFC) is a decent fighter with well-rounded skills, but he won’t be much of a match for Lytle’s superior skills and experience.

 Main Card

 LW: Nate Diaz (10-3) over Joe Stevenson (29-10) – Joe Stevenson (6-4 UFC) has become the upper level gatekeeper in the UFC, and there is nothing wrong with that. He has a pretty steady job, but he’ll probably be cut when a similar fighter comes along. Nate Diaz (5-1 UFC) is on the cusp of becoming an elite lightweight fighter in the UFC, and he probably only needs a few more big-name wins to earn a title shot. 2010 could be the year of Nate Diaz in the lightweight division, and I feel like he’ll put on an impressive show to open up the televised portion of the card on Saturday night. Expect fireworks and maybe a slick submission over one of the better fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division.

 WW TUF Final: DaMarcus Johnson (9-6) over James Wilks (5-2) – These were definitely the two best welterweights on this season of TUF, but Johnson has the most potential of any TUFfer that I’ve seen in awhile. He’s an incredible athlete with all-around skills. Plus you throw in the fact that he’s trained under a guy like Jeremy Horn, and we could be seeing the next big UFC star in a few years. Wilks is a very serviceable fighter, but I just don’t think he has the pedigree that Johnson has shown. 

LW TUF Final: Andre Winner (9-2-1) over Ross Pearson (8-3) – I pegged Andre Winner as a lightweight favorite at the beginning of this season, but Pearson has also been impressive with his three wins on the show. Winner definitely has the better pedigree, training with Paul Daley and Dan Hardy at Team Rough House, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Pearson lock in a submission to pull of an upset. One of the finals is always an incredible fight, and this one will steal the show as two hungry fighters try to prove that they both belong in the UFC.

 LW: Diego Sanchez (20-2) over Clay Guida (25-9) – Clay Guida (5-3 UFC) will definitely be a stiff test for Diego at lightweight, but I just think that Sanchez (9-2 UFC) will be too much for him. Diego is a former middleweight, and he has cut more than 30 pounds to make the 155-pound lightweight class. The winner of this fight is likely in line for a title shot, and while it will probably end up being a great fight with Guida hanging tough, Diego should be able to take an easy decision.

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